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The Year of Inconvenient Truths: Oscar Predictions 2007

22 February 2007

If you can go past those awful idiot faces on the bleachers outside the theatre without a sense of the collapse of the human intelligence; if you can stand the hailstorm of flashbulbs popping at the poor patient actors, who, like kings and queens, have never the right to look bored; if you can glance out over this gathered assemblage of what is supposed to be the elite of Hollywood and say to yourself without a sinking feeling, “In these hands lie the destinies of the only original art the modern world has conceived”; if you can laugh, and you probably will, at the cast-off jokes from the comedians on the stage, stuff that wasn’t good enough to use on their radio shows; if you can stand the fake sentimentality and the platitudes of the officials and the mincing elocution of the glamour queens (you ought to hear them with four martinis down the hatch); if you can do all these things with grace and pleasure, and not have a wild and forsaken horror at the thought that most of these people actually take this shoddy performance seriously; and if you can then go out into the night to see half the police force of Los Angeles gathered to protect the golden ones from the mob in the free seats but not from that awful moaning sound they give out, like destiny whistling through a hollow shell; if you can do all these things and still feel next morning that the picture business is worth the attention of one single intelligent, artistic mind, then in the picture business you certainly belong, because this sort of vulgarity is part of its inevitable price.

Raymond Chandler, “Oscar Night in Hollywood”

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Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond"
Ryan Gosling, "Half Nelson"
Peter O'Toole, "Venus"
Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness"
Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland" -- should win, will win

Actor in a Supporting Role

Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Jackie Earle Haley, "Little Children"
Djimon Hounsou, "Blood Diamond" -- should win
Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls" -- will win
Mark Wahlberg, "The Departed"

Actress

Penelope Cruz, "Volver"
Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal"
Helen Mirren, "The Queen" -- should win, will win
Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada"
Kate Winslet, "Little Children"

Actress in a Supporting Role

Adriana Barraza, "Babel" -- should win
Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal"
Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine"
Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls" -- will win
Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel"

Rule, Britannia! Queens and Kings of Scotland are the walk away winners, Mirren and Whitaker having delivered masterful performances in two of the finest films of the year. Too bad the nature of the modern Awards Season makes these four categories as easy to predict as the race between the hare and no one else, and thus less than fun to bother about. You simply cannot go against the people everyone is talking about.

Given that these four have won everything under the sun so far, if any do not win, it will be a surprise. Hudson is the least accomplished and the least exciting, having delivered a good enough performance to slide past a less-than-memorable effort by Blanchett, a 10-year-old girl, and two non-English speakers (let us not forget that the Oscars award the American film industry, which has shunned away from other languages in recent years). That same note might be working against Cruz for Best Actress, a performance I desperately want to acknowledge, if Mirren wasn’t so good. And as for Murphy, his great work in "Dreamgirls" is hard to reconcile against such a film as "Norbit," which seems closer to his heart. Nevertheless, it will be a deserving Oscar, though a closer finish, I'd like to think, than most expect.

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Animated Feature

“Cars” – should win
“Happy Feet” – will win
“Monster House”

I’m leaning toward an upset here: “Cars” is a technically sound animated film, featuring an expert story – albeit marketable with a NASCAR tie-in. It also has the kind of risky experimentation Pixar has made its name on: how do you animate reflective metal? It is, in short, a wonderful film, but not quite as wonderful as Pixar’s previous Oscar winners, “Finding Nemo” and “The Incredibles.” And animation being one of two categories voted on by a general filmmaking panel and not practitioners of the specific award, that leaves a door open for “Happy Feet”s ultra-feel-good philosophical fable. Like last year, an Oscar goes to the penguin.

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Art Direction

“Dreamgirls”
“The Good Shepherd”
“Pan’s Labyrinth” – should win, will win
“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”
“The Prestige”

“Pan’s Labyrinth” edges out a genuine sleeper in “The Prestige” to take a fitting Oscar for it’s marvelous depiction of a child’s dreamscape, set masterfully against the real nightmare of the Spanish Civil War.

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Cinematography

“The Black Dahlia”
“Children of Men” – should win, will win
“The Illusionist”
“Pan’s Labyrinth”
“The Prestige”

Five masterful cinematographic performances make this a massive and impossible discipline to predict, in what is quickly becoming my favorite Oscar category. While the odds-on favorite is again “Pan’s Labyrinth” – for the same reasons as it will win Art Direction – Emmanuel Lubezki’s long takes and near flawless vision of an England in ruin in “Children of Men” is both the most breathtaking and the most innovative photography of the year, rightfully taking a category that has lately gone to the cinematographer who has stuck his neck out the most (read: spots of blood on the lens).

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Costume Design

“Curse of the Golden Flower”
“The Devil Wears Prada”
“Dreamgirls”
“Marie Antoinette” – should win, will win
“The Queen”

When I saw “Marie Antoinette” last fall at the New York Film Festival, I thought two things. (1) It ain’t a good movie. (2) It will win costume. As much as I’d like to, I still cannot bet against that hair.

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Directing

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, “Babel”
Martin Scorsese, “The Departed” – will win
Clint Eastwood, “Letters from Iwo Jima”
Stephen Frears, “The Queen” – should win
Paul Greengrass, “United 93”

Frears put together a masterful look at Queen Elizabeth II, drawing out an astonishing performance from Mirren and handling a potentially dreadful subject with supreme grace, “humour,” and effortlessness.

But, again, this is an American award, and as we all know, if Marty makes a film, it’s his category to lose. His recent nominations have ranged from the debatably worthy (“The Aviator”) to the downright ridiculous (“Gangs of New York”). “The Departed” is a better film than those two, and he will finally win his Oscar, if for no other reason than keeping film history’s biggest showcase of egos in check: Damon, DiCaprio, Nicholson, Wahlberg, Sheen, Baldwin and Scorsese himself.

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Documentary Feature

"Deliver Us From Evil”
“An Inconvenient Truth” – should win, will win
“Iraq in Fragments”
“Jesus Camp”
“My Country, My Country”

If a single Oscar in any given year is headed to a truly controversial film, history says it will be in this category. The Al Gore-led “An Inconvenient Truth” is the clear front-runner, with a public sentiment similar to last year’s “March of the Penguins” and the political weight to make it seem unbeatable. So, let’s not get cute: it’ll win.

In the back of my head, though, “Truth” just doesn’t seem to jibe with the Academy’s style: too divisive a statement. They might give an Oscar to Michael Moore, pointing his finger at a single man who happens to be the president. Would they do the same to a filmmaker who makes light of a much broader problem, the finger pointing at all of us?

In a toss up category, don’t be surprised if James Longley and John Sinno’s “Iraq in Fragments” or Amy Berg and Frank Donner’s stellar examination of hypocrisy and corruption within the Catholic Church, “Deliver Us from Evil,” pull off surprise wins.

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Documentary Short

“The Blood of the Yingzhou District”
“Recycled Life” – will win
“Rehearsing a Dream”
“Two Hands”

Always a difficult category to pick, given that these films are virtually impossible to find. Having not seen any, though looking into each briefly, I can guess that Leslie Iwerks and Mike Glad’s heart wrenching chronicle of people eating out of a Central American garbage dump, “Recycled Life,” will be hard to beat in a under recognized category you wish was made widely available.

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Editing

“Babel”
“Blood Diamond”
“Children of Men” – should win
“The Departed” – will win
“United 93”

Editing is even more difficult than usual this year, with an honored veteran in Thelma Schoonmaker (“The Departed”) leading a gifted field. So, here’s how this breaks: Alex Rodriguez and Alfonso Cuaron prove in “Children of Men” that less is so much more, but are disqualified because of it. “Blood Diamond” and “United 93” enjoy their status as also-rans. Stephen Mirrione and Douglas Crise’s masterful work in “Babel” is nosed out by Schoonmaker. And “The Departed” wins every technical and directing award it can, right up to the point it doesn’t win Best Picture (as when Schoonmaker and Robert Richardson won for “The Aviator”).

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Foreign Language

“After the Wedding” (Denmark)
“Days of Glory (Indigenes)” (Algeria)
“The Lives of Others” (Germany)
“Pan’s Labyrinth” (Mexico) – should win, will win
“Water” (Canada)

With “Pan’s Labyrinth” nominated for so many other awards – and on many people’s short-list for a best picture nod in earlier days – it is difficult to figure why it wouldn’t win here. One reason may be that “The Lives of Others,” “Days of Glory” and “Water” are denser movies, appealing to the older voters in this category, and all are perfectly worthy of the Oscar. But, avoiding cuteness again, “Pan’s Labyrinth” takes what the Academy is willing to give it.

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Makeup

“Apocalypto”
“Click”
“Pan’s Labyrinth” – should win, will win

You think the Academy is going to come within shooting distance of Mel Gibson right now? That’s not to say “Pan’s Labyrinth” doesn’t deserve it, just – like last year with “Narnia” working against “Star Wars” – you’d like it to be a little less obvious.

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Original Score

“Babel”
“The Good German”
“Notes on a Scandal”
“Pan’s Labyrinth”
“The Queen” – should win, will win

An Academy favorite, Alexandre Desplat beats Thomas Newman’s eighth nomination (“The Good German”) and the unlikely prospect of “Brokeback Mountain” composer Gustavo Santaolalla repeating here for “Babel.”

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Original Song

“I Need to Wake Up” from “An Inconvenient Truth” – should win, will win
“Listen” from “Dreamgirls”
“Love You I Do” from “Dreamgirls”
“Our Town” from “Cars”
“Patience” from “Dreamgirls”

Let’s not cave in to “Dreamgirls” mania just yet. The film may have had the most nominations (padded nicely here) and is all but guaranteed two acting awards, but its snub in the Best Picture category means that voters may not actually be “Dreamgirls” fans. Instead, look for the famous name. Following Eminem, Annie Lennox, and Bob Dylan as recent Oscar winners, Melissa Etheridge takes the prize for “An Inconvenient Truth,” matching The Dixie Chicks’ efforts at the Grammys.

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Picture

“Babel” – should win, will win
“The Departed”
“Letters from Iwo Jima”
“Little Miss Sunshine”
“The Queen”

While it seems like a wide-open race this year, with “The Queen” taking European awards, “The Departed” being talked about as serendipitous, and “Little Miss Sunshine” getting the occasional hopeful mention, little really seems to stand in the way of “Babel,” Inarritu’s expansive and interwoven tale of three families in four stories. It has won most of the dramatic awards leading up to the Oscars. It fits within the complex style the Academy shockingly favored in “Crash” and “Lord of the Rings.” Moreover, it deserves to win, delivering an emotional punch matched by few films this year and capturing its complex storyline within inventive and spirited filmmaking.

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Short, Animated

“The Danish Poet” – will win
“Lifted”
“The Little Matchgirl”
“Maestro”
“No Time for Nuts”

Another year, another impossible category to predict. Stalwarts Walt Disney, Pixar, and Blue Sky all make an appearance but are bested by the less technical but more adventurous story in “The Danish Poet.”

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Short, Live Action

“Binta and the Great Idea”
“Eramos Pocos”
“Helmer & Son”
“The Saviour”
“West Bank Story” – will win

Rumor has it the comic reinvention of “West Side Story” is next to unbeatable. It at least has the kind of title Academy voters like, though watch out for “The Saviour” in a tricky category to guess.

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Sound Editing

“Apocalypto”
“Blood Diamond”
“Flags of Our Fathers” – should win, will win
“Letters from Iwo Jima”
“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”

Sound Mixing

“Apocalypto”
“Blood Diamond”
“Dreamgirls”
“Flags of Our Fathers” – should win, will win
“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest”

Visual Effects

“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” – should win, will win
“Poseidon”
“Superman Returns”

The action movie categories: count on the film that delivers the biggest bang.

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Adapted Screenplay

“Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan”
“Children of Men” – should win
“The Departed” – will win
“Little Children”
“Notes on a Scandal"

Original Screenplay

“Babel” – will win
“Letters from Iwo Jima”
“Little Miss Sunshine”
“Pan’s Labyrinth”
“The Queen” – should win

A less than totally stellar year for screenplays does not change the fact that the writing categories the real Best Pictures. “Children of Men” was my personal favorite film this year, and as much as I’d like to see it slide away with a deserved Oscar here, it’ll doubtless go to William Monahan for his daring – and thankfully light-handed – reworking of the Hong Kong film “Infernal Affairs” as the Boston/Irish gangland tale, “The Departed,” little competition being raised from any of the other nominees for adapted screenplay.

“Babel” should take the tougher original screenplay competition, on its way to a Best Picture nod, though – gutsy and complex as it was – there was something fully ballsy about a British writer exploring the inner workings of Buckingham Palace. And to come away from that rare inside world and that potentially disastrous subject matter with a script as funny as it was investigative, Peter Morgan should be proud of his genuine accomplishment with “The Queen.”

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My Oscar Batting Average since 2004: .847
Last year’s predictions
Last year’s results

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The 79th annual Academy Awards,
Sunday, February 25, 2007,
8 pm ET,

ABC

Arthur Ryel-Lindsey » Comments: