The Year of Assassinations by Demon Barbers: Oscar predictions 2008
22 February 2008
Rather busy this year, so I'll give a pretty quick gloss over the competition for this year's awards.
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Actor
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"--should win, will win
Johnny Depp, "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
Tommy Lee Jones, "In the Valley of Elah"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"
Actor in a Supporting Role
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men" -- should win, will win
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"
Actress
Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Julie Christie, "Away from Her" -- should win, will win
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en rose"
Laura Linney, "The Savages"
Ellen Page, "Juno"
Actress in a Supporting Role
Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There" -- will win
Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"
Saoirse Ronan, "Atonement"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone" -- should win
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"
A paradox: the glitz and glamour that are the essential hallmarks of the Oscars is most visibly located here in the acting categories. Yet, for those less interested in celebrity, little is left for the Oscars to do: the rush of awards shows leading up to the Oscars every year have a stunning record of giving statues to the same set of people, and save a surprise (Alan Arkin, last year), the Academy falls in line. The performances themselves can still stir the blood, as in Lewis's breathtaking descent into wholesome American greed in "There Will Be Blood," more crazy than Bardem's powerful turn as a maniac in "No Country for Old Men." No one can do crazy like Daniel Day-Lewis, though both receive fitting prizes for downright stunning work.
The women, as always, are harder to predict, because of the lesser roles they're so often given in Hollywood filmmaking. When in doubt, the Academy lately loves a real-life portrayal (remember portrayals of Edi Amin, Elizabeth II, Truman Capote, June Carter, Ray Charles are only the freshest examples of a long standing tradition). Hence, Blanchett's passable if hyperbolic work as Bob Dylan circa "Don't Look Back," beating out a pack of fictional characters creating a surprise pool of strong acting talent. For her part, Christie is just too good to pass up.
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Animated Feature
“Persepolis”
“Ratatouille” –- should win, will win
“Surf's Up”
A strong category goes to one of the best films of the year, regardless the method of production.
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Art Direction
"American Gangster"
"Atonement"
"The Golden Compass"
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" -- should win
"There Will Be Blood" -- will win
I can't help giving a nod to the brilliant scene-making in "Sweeney Todd," but "There Will Be Blood"s Oscar-day strong run (possible sweep) starts here with a fitting award for the film's expansive landscapes and color. Watch out for "Atonement" as a sleeper.
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Cinematography
“The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”
“Atonement”
"No Country for Old Men"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"There Will Be Blood" - should win, will win
The category that has consistently showcased in recent years the most innovative talents working in Hollywood, this one seems to be "There Will Be Blood"/Robert Elswitt's to lose. Again, audiences love the expansive landscapes. However, the great Roger Deakins was something of a specialist in that area this year, represented here by both "Assassination" and "No Country," making it a lot closer than most would think. "Atonement"s Seamus McGarvey and "Diving Bell"s Janusz Kaminski round out a stellar set of technicians for what, with editing and screenwriting, has become the most well contested--and my favorite--category.
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Costume Design
"Across the Universe"
"Atonement" - should win
"Elizabeth: The Golden Age" - will win
"La Vie en rose"
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
Quality of the movie tends to matter little in this most artsy of categories. So, like last year's winner "Marie Antoinette," go with the film that puts on the biggest show (even though the film itself was downright spastic). "Atonement" seems to be a genuine sleeper here as well, if for no other reason than Keira Knightley's spellbinding green dress.
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Directing
Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood" -- should win
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country for Old Men" -- will win
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
Jason Reitman, "Juno"
Julian Schnabel, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
A tough one to predict, the balance tips toward the Coens for the tremendous strength of their ensemble cast. Anderson boasts all their credentials--strong cast and even stronger writing, editing and cinematography--but there's just something in Lewis's work that seems either a given, or more likely to have flown out of Anderson's control. No one can do crazy like Daniel Day-Lewis.
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Documentary Feature
"No End in Sight"
"Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience"
"Sicko" - will win
"Taxi to the Dark Side"
"War Dance" - should win
Let's not go nuts. As much as I'd like to think some Michael Moore conspiracy is out there to prevent him from getting another Oscar, it's a strong bet he'll be the one behind the podium (with co-producer Meghan O'Hara, of course). I simply dislike his "Look at Me" style of filmmaking, and think any of the other four would be better choices. I defer to the charming tribal tale of rural African students traveling to the big city for a dancing competition on some kind of "March of the Penguins," cuteness-tells-the-tale vibe.
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Documentary Short
"Freeheld"
"La Corona"
"Salim Baba"
"Sari's Mother" - will win
A toss-up in one of the strongest categories the Awards boast this year. Any could win, with the Sari's Mother, a story of a mother treating for her son with AIDS, just beating out "Freeheld," about a New Jersey law enforcement officer seeking to get pension benefits transfered to her lesbian partner.
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Editing
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men" - should win
"There Will Be Blood" - will win
A tough set to choose from. It doesn't traditionally go to action movies (those come later), so the presumptive favorite ("Bourne") is out. Since "Blood" and "No Country" are my top two to win Best Picture, consider this year's editing award a foreshadow for who will take the night's big prize. The Academy has cleverly avoided the pitfall it almost fell into when Fargo's Roderick Jaynes was nominated in this category--the Coen Brothers' editing pseudonym has been notably replaced this year for "No Country" with, simply, Joel and Ethan Coen. Yet, I still don't think it's gonna happen for them, favoring the film I like to win it all.
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Foreign Language
“The Counterfeiters" (Austria) - will win
"Beaufort" (Israel)
"Mongol" (Kazakhstan)
"Katyn" (Poland)
"12" (Russia)
For no other reason than my workplace, the Film Society of Lincoln Center, screened "The Lives of Others" last year days before the film won this category. We showed "The Counterfeiters" two nights ago.
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Makeup
"La Vie en rose"
"Norbit"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" -- should win, will win
A process of elimination kind of category this year. "Norbit" may very well be the worst movie ever nominated for an Academy Award. While "Pirates" is more visual effects than makeup, it seems unlikely that "rose" will win simply for making Marion Cotillard look like Edith Piaf (what other makeup achievement was there in "rose"?). So, "Pirates" it is, repeating Oscar-night success of a year ago.
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Original Score
"Atonement" - will win
"The Kite Runner"
"Michael Clayton"
"Ratatouille" - should win
"3:10 to Yuma"
I give nods to the two scores I most admire, with the prize going to the composer most familiar to Academy voters. "Atonement" director Joe Wright previously took "Atonement"s Dario Marianelli to a score nod for "Pride and Prejudice." With twice-defending winner Gustavo Santaolalla out of the category this year, its Marianelli to beat out the rat's previously un-nominated Michael Giacchino (though his score for "The Incredibles" was hugely deserving) other the only other Academy favorite, James Newton Howard ("Michael Clayton").
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Original Song
“Raise it Up” from “August Rush”
“Happy Working Song” from “Enchanted”
“So Close” from “ Enchanted”
“That's How You Know” from “ Enchanted”
“Falling Slowly” from “Once” -- should win, will win
Love the movie, love the song. No major celebrities behind the songs this year (remember Melissa Ethridge, Annie Lennox, Bob Dylan, Eminem, and Bruce Springsteen, in recent years). Why not?
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Picture
"Atonement"
"Juno"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood" -- should win, will win
A good year for American movies comes up with a good set of films for Best Picture. Atonement, out, not American (and as we learned last year, the Oscars are America's awards). People say "Juno"s a sleeper to take it, but it--along with "Michael Clayton"--contains enough questionable choices to clear the road for the year's top two American films. I nod toward "There Will Be Blood" over my longtime favorites the Coen Brothers, for the sheer brilliant headiness of a movie that gives as good as all the wealth of imagery and acting you get. Both stuck with me after seeing them; "Blood" stuck longer. Simply brilliant. And no one can do crazy like Daniel Day-Lewis.
Remember, I've only gotten one Best Picture right in the last three years...
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Short, Animated
"Meme les pigeons von aut paradis"
"I Met the Walrus"
"Madame Tutli-Putli"
"My Love" - will win
"Peter & the Wolf"
"Pigeons" owes a lot to Pixar, in a year when Pixar isn't nominated in the category. But Pixar has been far from bulletproof when it comes to shorts, so cutesy CGI is no mitigating factor. This is an innovators award, going to the works that combine a great, sparsely worded (if worded at all) story with a vibrant or innovative visual style (see Pixar's early days or the last two shorts to win, "The Danish Poet" and John Canemaker's "Moon and Son"). So, it seems a race between "My Love," an exploration of a teenager's emotions highly influenced by the Impressionists, and "Madame Tutli-Putli," a joyful stop-motion about a woman on a train tormented by memories, ghosts, or her own wild imagination (metaphor for animation itself, anyone?). "My Love" wins, with the soul-shaking desire that these vital films were more easy to find.
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Short, Live Action
"Om natten" - will win
"The Substitute"
"Le Mozart des pickpockets"
"Tanghi argentini"
"The Tonto Woman"
Rumor says that "Om natten," the story of three women coming together in a cancer ward, is the category's only emotional force. "The Substitute" could win on technique, but go with the story that moves.
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Sound Editing
"The Bourne Ultimatum" -- should win
"No Country for Old Men"
"Ratatouille"
"There Will Be Blood"
"Transformers" -- will win
Sound Mixing
"The Bourne Ultimatum" -- will win
"No Country for Old Men" -- should win
"Ratatouille"
"3:10 to Yuma"
"Transformers"
Visual Effects
"The Golden Compass"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" -- should win
"Transformers" -- will win
The action movie categories: count on the film that delivers the biggest bang.
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Adapted Screenplay
"Atonement"
"Away from Her"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"No Country for Old Men" -- should win, will win
"There Will Be Blood"
Original Screenplay
"Juno" -- will win
"Lars and the Real Girl"
"Michael Clayton"
"Ratatouille" -- should win
"The Savages"
What a year for screenplays, the categories I've long considered the real Best Picture. Four adapteds could fittingly win ("Away from Her" the odd one out), and "No Country" and "Blood" are fantastic. "No Country" wins for offering the best of "Blood"--depth and expansive scenemaking--with the best of "Atonement"--crucial (if not ruthless) abbreviation of the base text to use only what the filmmakers can get across beautifully and effectively onscreen.
Similar competitiveness is at work in the original category. As long as Brad Bird and/or Pixar keeps making stories as effective and brilliant as the ones in "The Incredibles" and "Ratatouille," I'll support them for the top prizes. But people seem to be in love with "Juno," a strong screenplay that looks to repeat "Little Miss Sunshine"s surprise win of a year ago. Its a movie about that moment when you need to grow-up, that uses a huge catalyst (teenage pregnancy) but puts it on the back burner in favor of a constant string of pithy, clever remarks. In short, I question its credentials, but not its fanbase.
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My Oscar Batting Average since 2004: .792 (76/96)
Last year’s predictions
Last year’s results
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The 80th annual Academy Awards,
Sunday, February 24, 2008,
8 pm ET,
ABC