Drop Frame

The Year of Journeymen, Journalists, and Big Clay Rabbits: Oscar Predictions 2006

01 March 2006

Because it's there.

George Leigh Mallory

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Actor

Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote" – should win, will win
Terrence Howard, "Hustle & Flow"
Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain"
Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk the Line"
David Strathairn, "Good Night, and Good Luck."

In a category full of great performances, the Oscar goes to the one that stands out the most. Hoffman is captivating and shattering as Truman Capote, and the transformation Capote goes through to reach that moment at the end of the film when he chokes on his words while saying goodbye to his research subjects – whose lives he has just used to earn personal fame – is the most precise and significant performance by an actor this year.

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Actor in a Supporting Role

George Clooney, "Syriana"
Matt Dillon, "Crash"
Paul Giamatti, "Cinderella Man" – should win, will win
Jake Gyllenhaal, "Brokeback Mountain"
William Hurt, "A History of Violence"

Another strong acting category, Giamatti should win in a bit of a sleeper pick. The journeyman actor tied a hard luck story together with subtle comic touch and helped turn "Cinderella Man" into a very good film. Dillon could also get a deserving nod for his strong effort in a bad film, and do not be surprised if Clooney earns a people’s choice Oscar for a respectable performance in a role that is debatable as "supporting."

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Actress

Judi Dench, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"
Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica"
Keira Knightley, "Pride & Prejudice"
Charlize Theron, "North Country"
Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line" – will win
None of the Above – should win

It has been a year of underwhelming performances by leading women, a reflection not on them but on the writers: there are no deeply developed and demanding parts for actresses. No Capotes. No Murrows. No Cashes. Definitely no Enis Delmars.

Nevertheless, none of this year’s five nominations in the best actress category really shout for recognition. The popular favorite is Reese Witherspoon in "Walk the Line," though she neither acted nor sounded like the real June Carter and Carter certainly did not have, in reality, the kind of supportive angel nature in Johnny Cash’s life that the film represents (Should the actor in a biopic become the historical person he/she is playing, or should he/she act in service of the story even when that acting does not relate to the nature of the real thing? This year’s Oscars will not give an answer since it will, in all likelihood, honor Hoffman for the former and Witherspoon for the latter).

Felicity Huffman is also in close contention, but despite her very strong efforts, she could not inhabit her role: thanks to "Desperate Housewives," she is one of America’s most recognizable – and beautiful – women, playing "ugly" as a man wanting to be a woman. Why could the makers of "Transamerica" not get a man to play the part, or, better yet, a transgendered person?

And since Dench is nominated for a role she could have performed in her sleep – and seems to have performed half asleep, watching the film – Knightley and Theron as popular choices in good but by no means great performances, this category should be withheld this year as a challenge to step it up, writers, next time ‘round.

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Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams, "Junebug"
Catherine Keener, "Capote" – should win
Frances McDormand, "North Country"
Rachel Weisz, "The Constant Gardener" – will win
Michelle Williams, "Brokeback Mountain"

Having just ratted on leading women, this year’s supporting actress category offers some more deserving options. Keener's near scene-stealing subtlety as Harper Lee in "Capote" garnered her much respect, especially given the strength of Hoffman’s performance. The Oscar will go to Weisz, however, who has been grabbing awards this season for her excellent performance in a permutation of the part she seems to have been born to play: the well-intentioned doctor/scientist marked for death (see "Chain Reaction," "The Mummy," and "The Mummy Returns").

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Animated Feature

"Howl’s Moving Castle"
"Tim Burton’s Corpse Bride"
"Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit" – should win, will win

DreamWorks and Aardman Animation’s "Wallace & Gromit" is the runaway winner – as it is one of this year’s very best films – in a category notably void of the presence of twice defending winner Pixar.

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Art Direction

"Good Night, and Good Luck."
"Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire"
"King Kong"
"Memoirs of a Geisha" – will win
"Pride & Prejudice"

I cannot comment on who should win this category, as I have not seen the production art, but based on set design alone, I lean toward "Pride & Prejudice." However, "Memoirs of a Geisha" – a weak film with very impressive technical elements – could earn a deserving Oscar here for its expansive and vibrant designs, beating out odds-on favorite "King Kong."

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Cinematography

"Batman Begins"
"Brokeback Mountain" – will win
"Good Night, and Good Luck" – should win
"Memoirs of a Geisha"
"The New World"

The difficulty of shooting in black and white – and the success "Good Night, and Good Luck." cinematographer Robert Elswit achieved in advancing his film’s story through imagery – places that film’s cinematography above "Brokeback Mountain"s. Yet, "Brokeback" cinematographer Rodrigo Prieto and his beautifully photographed film are certainly deserving. "Brokeback"s expansive landscape shots reminiscent of John Ford films, which are also elemental to the slow, precise nature of the movie, place it at the top of five excellent cinematographic performances in one of this year’s toughest categories to predict.

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Costume Design

"Charlie and the Chocolate Factory"
"Memoirs of a Geisha" – should win, will win
"Mrs. Henderson Presents"
"Pride & Prejudice"
"Walk the Line"

A costume designer’s movie, "Memoirs of a Geisha" succeeds where one of its characters failed: with a respect for brilliant fabrics.

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Directing

Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain" – will win
Bennett Miller, "Capote"
Paul Haggis, "Crash"
George Clooney, "Good Night, and Good Luck." – should win
Steven Spielberg, "Munich"

I give the direction award to Clooney for tackling a current issue with fervor and talent, coming out of it with an excellent movie that is intelligent, engaging, and -- significantly -- uninsulting. The Oscar goes to "Brokeback," though, and it is certainly earned: Ang Lee’s soft and subdued depiction of tragic love made evocative and successful a story that had most people cringing -- for various reasons -- when it was first announced.

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Documentary Feature

"Darwin’s Nightmare"
"Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room"
"March of the Penguins" – will win
"Murderball" – should win
"Street Fight"

History suggests that this category is where the Academy likes to shake things up, picking more times than not the film with the most controversial subject. However, due to this year’s complete lack of controversial subjects, the award goes to the family favorite "March of the Penguins," a cute chronicle of penguin life in the Antarctic wild that does not have much weight behind it (the film’s conflict is the difficulty these penguins have surviving winter during an annual mating event, yet the event is instinctual and long-standing and the winter depicted in the film hardly seems like the one that will kill all life south of the Antarctic Circle. Thus, Life, unsurprisingly, goes on).

"Murderball," more in line with the tenets of strong storytelling, is a more fully realized documentary. It just does not have small, furry animals.

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Documentary Short

"The Death of Kevin Carter: Casualty of the Bang Bang Club"
"God Sleeps in Rwanda" – will win
"The Mushroom Club"
"A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin"

In a category where I have not seen any of the films, research on the nominees suggests that here is the controversial subject that will carry through Oscar day. "God Sleeps in Rwanda" depicts the lives of women in Rwanda effected by that country’s recent genocide. A moving and provocative subject, one wishes these films were more widely available.

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Editing

"Cinderella Man"
"The Constant Gardener"
"Crash" – will win
"Munich" – should win
"Walk the Line"

Once quite literally my bread-and-butter category, editing is hard to predict in 2006. All the nominated films are well edited, but none of them are ground-breaking. If "Brokeback" was nominated, it would be favorite, given the film’s likely best picture award. Without it, "Crash" wins as a popular favorite, while "Munich"s expressive deliberation on the lives of its fighters might be more tightly put together. Really, any of these films could take it: for good, steady work.

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Language other than English (since Foreign Language is poor English)

"Don’t Tell" (Italy)
"Joyeux Noel" (France)
"Paradise Now" (Palestine) – should win
"Sophie Scholl – The Final Days" (Germany)
"Tsotsi" (South Africa) – will win

Running scared from the controversy surrounding "Paradise Now," -- one of the year’s best films in any language -- the Oscar goes to the next best bet, "Tsotsi," a strong film about gang life in Johannesburg.

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Makeup

"The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe" – should win, will win
"Cinderella Man"
"Star Wars: Episode III Revenge of the Sith"

No amount of alien-face can make an Academy selector think "Star Wars" was a good film. Congratulations, "Narnia," here is your Oscar on a platter.

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Original Score

"Brokeback Mountain" – will win
"The Constant Gardener"
"Memoirs of a Geisha"
"Munich"
"Pride & Prejudice" – should win

"Brokeback" wins for its recognizable western themes, but "Pride & Prejudice"s melodies were far more appropriate to the story they were written to support, as well as more memorable.

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Original Song

"In the Deep" from "Crash"
"It’s Hard Out Here for a Pimp" from "Hustle & Flow" – should win, will win
"Travelin’ Thru" from "Transamerica"

With a title like that, how can it lose?

With more seriousness, this category has lately gone to the song written and sung by the recognizable star: Annie Lennox, Eminem, Bob Dylan. "Travelin’ Thru" is sung by Dolly Parton, but the song is a farce at best and certainly cannot stand up to the strength or effectiveness of "Hustle & Flow"s centerpiece.

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Picture

"Brokeback Mountain" – will win
"Capote"
"Crash"
"Good Night, and Good Luck." – should win
"Munich"

While "Good Night" was my personal favorite this year, "Brokeback" carries the critical weight to earn best picture in what has become, by most accounts, a two-film race with "Munich."

"Brokeback" is an all-around great film, with strong technical elements, very strong acting, and a nice, subtle sense of cinematic storytelling. "Munich" and "Crash," meanwhile, are heavy-handed. "Good Night" does not have the critical praise, and "Capote" – a great film for subtlety – is out by virtue of its virgin-ness: a first-time director will not win best picture. These last arguments are political, which belies "Brokeback"s quality – Lee’s film is more than deserving to win the overall nod on its artistry alone – but the Oscars are the Oscars. Thus, for political reasons as much as not, "Brokeback" takes all comers and wins, by a nose.

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Short, Animated

"Badgered"
"The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation"
"The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello"
"9"
"One Man Band" – will win

In an impossibly hard category to predict, Pixar – absent from the animated features category – earns its Oscar in the short subjects with a film that may only be widely released (in front of "Cars") if it does well here.

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Short, Live Action

"Ausreisser (The Runaway)"
"Cashback"
"The Last Farm"
"Our Time is Up"
"Six Shooter" – will win

Again, I have not seen any of the nominees, so I have no comment on who should win. "Six Shooter"s tale of one man’s declining circumstances colliding with an oddball character seems right in line with the kind of film the Academy likes to honor with this category. It certainly pangs of one of the best short films in recent memory, the tale of two men’s declining circumstances colliding with an oddball character: Academy-Award-winning "The Accountant," (Ray McKinnon, 2001).

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Sound Editing

"King Kong" - should win, will win
"Memoirs of a Geisha"
"War of the Worlds"

Sound Mixing

"The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe"
"King Kong" – should win, will win
"Memoirs of Geisha"
"Walk the Line"
"War of the Worlds"

Visual Effects

"The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe"
"King Kong" - should win, will win
"War of the Worlds"

The action movie categories: no one did them better this year – or in recent years – than Peter Jackson.

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Adapted Screenplay

"Brokeback Mountain" – should win, will win
"Capote"
"The Constant Gardener"
"A History of Violence"
"Munich"

"Brokeback"s greatest strength is its writing, and it is easily this year’s most well written film. This recognition comes for the writing that was not there: the film left much unsaid and let many of the visuals do the talking. Thus, in a category often considered the true "best picture" award, and amid several strong contenders, "Brokeback" seals its position at the top.

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Original Screenplay

"Crash" – will win
"Good Night, and Good Luck."
"Match Point" – should win
"The Squid and the Whale"
"Syriana"

"Crash" captured the popular discussion when it was released in the summer, and despite a screenplay that leaves loose ends wide open and lacks redemption and closure, "Crash" has become the runaway favorite to win a writing award. This is not surprising but certainly significant, given a category with four other films that were each better written, including the equally adept conversation-starter, "Syriana."

"Good Night"s reliance on prerecorded footage and pre-written speeches probably knocks it out of contention, though its original elements make for brilliant script writing. The nod should, therefore, go to Woody Allen’s Dostoevskian tale, "Match Point," for sheer imaginative force in creating and displaying metaphor – like the tennis ball bouncing off the net – with more precision than any film this year.

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Box Score

Should Wins:
"Good Night, and Good Luck.," 3
"King Kong," 3
"Capote," 2
"Brokeback Mountain," 1
"The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe," 1
"Cinderella Man," 1
"Hustle & Flow," 1
"Match Point," 1
"Memoirs of a Geisha," 1
"Munich," 1
"Murderball," 1
"Paradise Now," 1
"Pride & Prejudice," 1
"Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit," 1

Will Wins:
"Brokeback Mountain," 5
"King Kong," 3
"Crash," 2
"Memoirs of a Geisha," 2
"Capote," 1
"The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe," 1
"Cinderella Man," 1
"The Constant Gardener," 1
"God Sleeps in Rwanda," 1
"Hustle & Flow," 1
"March of the Penguins," 1
"One Man Band," 1
"Six Shooter," 1
"Tsotsi," 1
"Walk the Line," 1
"Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit," 1

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The 78th annual Academy Awards,
Sunday, March 5, 2006,
8 pm ET,
ABC

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